Will The Second Peak Of Covid-19 Be Worse Than The First?

We cannot make assumptions that just because the disease is on the way down now that it's going to keep going down.

Infectious disease experts believe that Covid-19 will surge again when summer ends. However, nobody is sure about its severity.

The WHO gives some idea about the second wave of Covid-19. According to it, infections could jump up suddenly and significantly “at any time.”

Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, said recently that we are “right in the middle of the first wave, globally.”

“We’re still very much in a phase where the disease is actually on the way up,” he added.

“We need to be also cognizant of the fact that the disease can jump up at any time. We cannot make assumptions that just because the disease is on the way down now that it’s going to keep going down, and the way to get a number of months to get ready for a second wave – we may get a second peak in this way,” Ryan said.

Ryan warned that a second peak or wave could come during the normal influenza season, “which will greatly complicate things for disease control.”

How will the second peak unfold? It is unlikely to be like a wave. There will be a sudden spike in cases, and this spike will be enough to put health care system under stress again. This is also likely to cause greater number of deaths. And worse, the second peak will be worse than the first.

“The only real reason to try and dampen these peaks are to prevent preventable deaths, so that the health care system can take care of everyone who needs it and give them the best possible chance at a healthy outcome,” Kelen, who specializes in emerging infections, told CNN.

What have we learned from the first peak of Covid-19? And how will we cope with another one?

We now understand this illness a lot better than we did. We know what it does to people who are sick enough to need to stay in hospital. For a start, it kills almost 40% of them, more if they are elderly. Many of the survivors suffer horrible lung damage and “storms” of inflammation, often needing weeks on a ventilator, says an opinion peace published in The Guardian, qoting NHS.

What a second peak could look like
  • In a second peak scenario, coronavirus cases would spike sharply and quickly until they reach a new high, likely after a period when the rate of infection remained fairly stable.
  • In a second wave, infections may unfold more gradually and impact different regions of the world at different times.
  • But in both a second peak scenario and one in which we “flatten the curve,” the same number of people could be infected. It’s the timing that counts.

According to a cross-party report from British MPs, Air pollution must be kept at low levels to help avoid a second peak of coronavirus infections.

The report is based on evidence from scientists, businesses and local authorities and proposes a series of actions, including the continuation of home working, increased cycle lanes and training, more frequent public transport services to avoid crowding and the phasing out of wood and coal burning in homes.

The launch of the report also revealed new evidence of a biological mechanism that could explain how air pollution increases Covid-19 infections, reported The Guardian.

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