India May Surpass US By October With Over 70 Lakh Cases: BITS Pilani Study

India may witness over seven million Covid-19 cases by October, surpassing the US and emerging as the country with the highest infections.

India’s coronavirus cases have surged in the past week. The rise comes after lifting of some restrictions.

With 96,551 new cases, India’s coronavirus tally past 45 lakh in the last 24 hours. India may witness over seven million Covid-19 cases by the first week of October, surpassing the US and emerging as the country with the highest number of infections, a team of researchers from BITS Pilani, Hyderabad said on Friday.

The team has been engaged in forecasting Covid-19 pandemic in India using advanced statistical learning techniques, lead researcher Dr TSL Radhika of the Department of Applied Mathematics, BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus said.

The total coronavirus cases mounted to 45,62,414, while the recoveries surged to 35,42,663, the data updated at 8 am showed. The Covid-19 case fatality rate has further dropped to 1.67 per cent while the recovery rate was recorded at 77.65 per cent.

There are 9,43,480 active cases of Covid-19 in the country which comprises 20.68 per cent of the total caseload, the data stated. The country had recorded over 95,000 cases on Wednesday and Thursday. India’s Covid-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 30 lakh on August 23 and it went past 40 lakh on September 5.

According to the ICMR, a cumulative total of 5,40,97,975 samples have been tested up to September 10 with 11,63,542 samples being tested on Friday.  Of the 1,209 new deaths, 495 are from Maharashtra, 129 from Karnataka, 94 from Uttar Pradesh, 88 from Punjab, 68 from Andhra Pradesh, 64 from Tamil Nadu, 41 from West Bengal, 28 from Delhi, 25 from Haryana, 21 from Madhya Pradesh, 18 from Assam, 16 from Chhattisgarh, 15 from Gujarat, 14 from Rajasthan, 13 each from Jammu and Kashmir and Telangana and 12 from Kerala.

Eleven fatalities have been reported from Odisha, ten from Bihar, six each from Goa and Puducherry, five each from Jharkhand and Uttarakhand, four from Manipur, three each from Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh, while Ladakh and Meghalaya have registered one fatality each.

Total 76,271 deaths, Maharashtra has reported the maximum at 28,282 followed by 8,154 in Tamil Nadu, 6,937 in Karnataka, 4,702 in Andhra Pradesh, 4,666 in Delhi, 4,206 in Uttar Pradesh, 3,771 in West Bengal, 3,164 in Gujarat and 2,149 in Punjab.

So far, 1,661 people have died of Covid-19 in Madhya Pradesh, 1,192 in Rajasthan, 940 in Telangana, 907 in Haryana, 845 in Jammu and Kashmir, 785 in Bihar, 591 in Odisha, 517 in Jharkhand, 493 in Chhattisgarh, 414 in Assam, 396 in Kerala and 377 in Uttarakhand. Puducherry has registered 353 fatalities, Goa 268, Tripura 173, Chandigarh 83,  Himachal Pradesh 66, Andaman and Nicobar Islands 51, Manipur 44, Ladakh 36, Meghalaya 20, Nagaland 10, Arunachal Pradesh nine, Sikkim seven and Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu two.

The health ministry stressed that more than 70 per cent of the deaths occurred due to comorbidities. “Our figures are being reconciled with the Indian Council of Medical Research,” the ministry said on its website, adding that state-wise distribution of figures is subject to further verification

The team has recently communicated its findings to the ‘International Journal of Infectious Diseases’ published by the well-known publisher Elsevier. “Our results obtained using a model based on statistical learning techniques applied to the existing data, indicate that India is likely to become the top Covid-19 country in the world, surpassing the United States by about the first week of October, that is in about a month’s time.

The total number of cases is also likely to cross the 70 -lakh mark by this time. The figure, however, is contingent on the number of tests being carried out,” Dr Radhika said. The researchers are now working on refining their model based on advanced machine learning technique

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