Coronavirus: EIU revises downwards global growth to 2.2% for 2020

New Delhi: Amidst the deadly Coronavirus outbreak in Central China, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has revised downwards its global growth forecast for 2020 to 2.2 per cent, from 2.3 per cent previously.

“The Chinese authorities are taking unprecedented quarantine measures to halt the spread of the pathogen, which is likely to have consequences on the global economy,” The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in a report.

Global growth was sluggish throughout 2019 amid trade tensions, a sharp deceleration in real GDP growth in the US, China and India and political uncertainty in a number of EU countries.

In addition, since the start of 2020, concerns related to coronavirus have increased threats to global growth, it said.

Noting that the virus is a “threat” for global growth, the EIU has revised China’s growth downwards.

“On the assumption that the spread of the virus will be under control by end-March, we are lowering our real GDP forecast for China in 2020 to 5.4 per cent, from 5.9 per cent previously,” The EIU said in a report.

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s baseline scenario is that the public health emergency within China will be under control by end-March.

The EIU was bullish about India growth forecast, provided the coronavirus epidemic does not spread to India.

“In Asia, we believe that India and Japan, respectively, recorded the best and the worst rates of quarterly growth among G7 and BRICS countries in October-December,” it noted.

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